Today, a co-worker has to make a similar choice, so I thought it would be good to share our experiences.
Instead of comparing between the 2 choices, I recommend picking a set of pivot points. What is the most important to you personally in the next 3 years, without looking at the 2 options? Is it impact, challenge, learning, money, prestige or work life balance? Pick no more than 2 pivot points and use this to guide the decision.
I found that once I pick the pivot points, the answer was obvious. My co-worker today, who struggled for 2 weeks on his decision, finally made his decision because he found his pivot point.
It may not work for every decision, but I hope this helps for you to make a decision in the future.