Wild Prediction: Amazon Video Going Global sets The Stage For Netflix To Run Out Of Money In 4 Years

While reading Amazon Video Goes Global

It is fun to make predictions now and see in 4 years how they turn out.

My prediction: in 4 years Netflix runs out of money to buy and produce their own shows.

  • Netflix’s current offering for movies and TV shows will be squeezed to be a much smaller library because the movie and TV studios have their own premium subscriptions and want to either control their own content or will distribute it to the highest bidder.  Example: Every time I sign up for Netflix, I spend more time trying to find something to watch than actually watching a show.
  • Amazon Video has a much larger library of content if you add up the free content, and paid for content (rented and buy to own).  Amazon has a much larger war chest to continue their acquisition of Amazon produced content and sign exclusive deals with studios.
  • Watch out for the $1.00 digital credit that Amazon gives out if consumers are willing to go for slower shipping times. Those credits lead to more paid video rentals and build consumer habits to try out Amazon paid content.
  • Netflix becomes the 2nd choice digital service when people evaluate their digital spending.  When people look at their monthly digital bill for Internet connection,  phone, movies, streaming video, digital music, gaming services, Netflix will be on the chopping block when their lack luster content is weighted against the first choice digital services. People have limited budget for digital services and entertainment. Goodbye Netflix subscription.
  • Binge watching on Netflix will actually be their Achilles heel. If there are 2 shows I want to watch on Netflix, I will just sign up for a month, binge watch and cancel.

Netflix provided a fantastic service when there were no other player around a few years ago.  But now pretty much every media company has a mobile streaming app and a premium service for people who are core cutters.

When people start evaluating what they are paying for in digital services,  the $10 in Netflix fees will be compared against the following first choice services. . My prediction is that 4 years from now Netflix merges with another service or become a 2nd choice compare with the following first choice.

  • Amazon Video $0.00 for prime members
  • YouTube Red which gives you music and video with no ads, around $10
  • Pandora, Spotify, Apple Music
  • Showtime, HBO
  • Slingbox for Cable services
  • Sports streaming like MLB, NFL