Wild Prediction: Amazon Video Going Global sets The Stage For Netflix To Run Out Of Money In 4 Years

While reading Amazon Video Goes Global… 

It is fun to make predictions now and see in 4 years how they turn out.

My prediction: in 4 years Netflix runs out of money to buy and produce their own shows. 

  • Netflix’s current offering for movies and TV shows will be squeezed to be a much smaller library because the movie and TV studios have their own premium subscriptions and want to either control their own content or will distribute it to the highest bidder.  Example: Every time I sign up for Netflix, I spend more time trying to find something to watch than actually watching a show. 
  • Amazon Video has a much larger library of content if you add up the free content, and paid for content (rented and buy to own).  Amazon has a much larger war chest to continue their acquisition of Amazon produced content and sign exclusive deals with studios. 
  • Watch out for the $1.00 digital credit that Amazon gives out if consumers are willing to go for slower shipping times. Those credits lead to more paid video rentals and build consumer habits to try out Amazon paid content. 
  • Netflix becomes the 2nd choice digital service when people evaluate their digital spending.  When people look at their monthly digital bill for Internet connection,  phone, movies, streaming video, digital music, gaming services, Netflix will be on the chopping block when their lack luster content is weighted against the first choice digital services. People have limited budget for digital services and entertainment. Goodbye Netflix subscription. 
  • Binge watching on Netflix will actually be their Achilles heel. If there are 2 shows I want to watch on Netflix, I will just sign up for a month, binge watch and cancel. 

Netflix provided a fantastic service when there were no other player around a few years ago.  But now pretty much every media company has a mobile streaming app and a premium service for people who are core cutters. 

When people start evaluating what they are paying for in digital services,  the $10 in Netflix fees will be compared against the following first choice services. . My prediction is that 4 years from now Netflix merges with another service or become a 2nd choice compare with the following first choice. 

  • Amazon Video $0.00 for prime members
  • YouTube Red which gives you music and video with no ads, around $10
  • Pandora, Spotify, Apple Music
  • Showtime, HBO
  • Slingbox for Cable services
  • Sports streaming like MLB, NFL

    link: Theranos Whistleblower Shook the Company

    Read about how Theranos tried to silence one of their employees from disclosing the flawed blood device started by Elizabeth Holmes, a Stanford dropout. 

    How many of us at 26 years old has the courage to stand up for what is right when faced with a lawsuit and 400,000 in lawyer fees?


    Saying It Out Loud

    This week I learned something new about myself.    I learned that what I’m thinking in my head,  when not explicitly told to those I love,  is not necessarily known to those love ones.

    This seems like a very obviously point,  but I often make this mistake.   I think this could be that I am an introvert by nature and I like to bounce thoughts in my own head.     Also I assume my love ones can feel what I am thinking because of my actions.   Actions speak louder than words right? 


    Sometimes words are more powerful than simple action. 

    • I am reminded to tell my child that I accept her no matter what path she chooses for her self. 
    • I am reminded to tell my child that I think about her future.   That as a parent,  I have obvious biases.   That I worry about her future.   I worry that if she doesn’t choose the obvious path to success,  that she will struggle in life.    I tell her that I don’t know the right path for another human being to take.    It is up to her to decide on her future.   Success is not guaranteed,  happiness is not necessarily the end goal.   Fulfilling work,  self expression and realization of your own talents is a worthy goal of life as well.

      Sometimes random conversations with a child in a car leads to interesting learnings about myself and my child.

      I love you.

      Your Email Communication Is Not Secure


      A random tile in front of a house in the Inner Sunset in San Francisco


      All of us have a key that enters our front door.   We believe that no one else can get in without a key and we entrust this front door key only to people we absolutely trust. The security of your front door is an illusion.   The door can be easily broken down.   The windows are easier to enter from via a broken glass.

      We should assume the same about our passwords to login to our email systems and our PIN codes to unlock our phones.   The recent hacking of the DNC emails only serves to remind us that email communication is not secure.   Anything written and sent via email can be hijacked in various ways.

      Your email communication is not secure, understanding this is the first step.   The second step is understanding why it is not secure.

      • The receiver of the email can forward,  save and disclose to anyone they choose
      • The email service provider (Hotmail,  Outlook, Gmail,  Yahoo)  can be hacked,  or more likely hand over the email to the government.
      • Careless handling of passwords by the owner of the email account,  not turning on 2 factor authentication
      • A phone using IMAP which downloads all of your emails and stored locally on the phone gets stolen without encryption and without a strong PIN to protect it.
      • Various conviniences like cloud backup storage (I Cloud,  Dropbox,  Box,   Google Drive)  that you store email backups and password files that are unencrypted can compromise your emails
      • IT departments underfunded,  with not enough security measures, hosting machines that emails are downloaded for their employees also could get hacked.
      • A co-worker or family members installs malware on their devices can comprise everyone
      • State sponsored hacking is impossible to stop.

      Just a friendly reminder to myself and others that email is not secure,  did I say that already?